Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 27 2020 | 7563 | 37665 | 241 | 57 | 1312 | 2021 |
| November 28 2020 | 7661 | 37844 | 243 | 57 | 1059 | 2035 |
| November 29 2020 | 7756 | 37967 | 243 | 57 | 978 | 1891 |
| November 30 2020 | 7790 | 38123 | 243 | 57 | 860 | 1641 |
| December 01 2020 | 7854 | 38250 | 245 | 58 | 779 | 1603 |
| December 02 2020 | 7909 | 38383 | 248 | 59 | 727 | 1307 |
| December 03 2020 | 7956 | 38522 | 248 | 59 | 706 | 1178 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.3 | 4.4% | 31 | 0.27% | 53 | 0.46% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 4.7 | 10.5% | 74 | 0.54% | 138 | 1.01% |
| 20-29 | 18 | 17.1 | 26.9% | 190 | 0.91% | 310 | 1.48% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 9.7 | 16.9% | 119 | 0.87% | 194 | 1.43% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 6.6 | 11.8% | 83 | 0.79% | 143 | 1.37% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 6.9 | 12.9% | 91 | 0.72% | 147 | 1.17% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 5.0 | 9.6% | 68 | 0.59% | 106 | 0.92% |
| 70+ | 2 | 3.9 | 7.1% | 50 | 0.48% | 87 | 0.83% |
| All ages | 47 | 56.1 | 100% | 706 | 0.67% | 1178 | 1.13% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 27 2020 | 4531 | 22828 | 126 | 50 | 838 | 1173 |
| November 28 2020 | 4535 | 22892 | 127 | 50 | 738 | 1097 |
| November 29 2020 | 4598 | 22959 | 130 | 51 | 704 | 1087 |
| November 30 2020 | 4666 | 23035 | 132 | 51 | 697 | 1086 |
| December 01 2020 | 4794 | 23095 | 134 | 52 | 619 | 1101 |
| December 02 2020 | 4921 | 23146 | 138 | 53 | 666 | 1124 |
| December 03 2020 | 4990 | 23207 | 139 | 53 | 686 | 1096 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.6 | 4.2% | 29 | 0.37% | 39 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 7.7 | 11.1% | 76 | 0.9% | 101 | 1.2% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 9.7 | 14.6% | 100 | 1.41% | 162 | 2.28% |
| 30-39 | 18 | 11.4 | 17.1% | 117 | 1.39% | 203 | 2.42% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 11.9 | 18.7% | 128 | 1.65% | 203 | 2.62% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 7.7 | 12.5% | 86 | 0.89% | 157 | 1.62% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 5.3 | 8% | 55 | 0.65% | 96 | 1.14% |
| 70+ | 3 | 9.4 | 13.8% | 95 | 1.34% | 135 | 1.9% |
| All ages | 69 | 65.7 | 100% | 686 | 1.06% | 1096 | 1.7% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 27 2020 | 3465 | 15195 | 128 | 41 | 711 | 1281 |
| November 28 2020 | 3558 | 15226 | 136 | 41 | 676 | 1161 |
| November 29 2020 | 3580 | 15261 | 139 | 41 | 557 | 939 |
| November 30 2020 | 3619 | 15354 | 142 | 41 | 481 | 898 |
| December 01 2020 | 3650 | 15395 | 148 | 41 | 438 | 896 |
| December 02 2020 | 3688 | 15466 | 151 | 41 | 438 | 806 |
| December 03 2020 | 3721 | 15508 | 154 | 41 | 414 | 698 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.9 | 5.3% | 22 | 0.41% | 36 | 0.66% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 3.3 | 8.2% | 34 | 0.63% | 64 | 1.18% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 4.3 | 11.8% | 49 | 1.08% | 86 | 1.9% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 4.6 | 13.3% | 55 | 1.01% | 101 | 1.86% |
| 40-49 | 3 | 4.1 | 11.1% | 46 | 0.92% | 82 | 1.65% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 4.4 | 16.2% | 67 | 0.99% | 104 | 1.53% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 6.4 | 15.7% | 65 | 1.03% | 102 | 1.61% |
| 70+ | 6 | 7.6 | 18.4% | 76 | 1.2% | 123 | 1.94% |
| All ages | 33 | 36.6 | 100% | 414 | 0.92% | 698 | 1.54% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 27 2020 | 7813 | 40286 | 157 | 35 | 1172 | 1629 |
| November 28 2020 | 7906 | 40422 | 158 | 35 | 1061 | 1680 |
| November 29 2020 | 8011 | 40550 | 158 | 35 | 1092 | 1726 |
| November 30 2020 | 8087 | 40669 | 162 | 35 | 1006 | 1638 |
| December 01 2020 | 8126 | 40839 | 170 | 36 | 839 | 1485 |
| December 02 2020 | 8209 | 40943 | 173 | 37 | 869 | 1364 |
| December 03 2020 | 8400 | 41172 | 180 | 38 | 999 | 1481 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 2.6 | 3.5% | 35 | 0.3% | 50 | 0.42% |
| 10-19 | 22 | 10.7 | 11.3% | 113 | 0.68% | 150 | 0.91% |
| 20-29 | 33 | 16.9 | 19.2% | 192 | 0.9% | 299 | 1.4% |
| 30-39 | 36 | 15.0 | 15.9% | 159 | 1.17% | 240 | 1.77% |
| 40-49 | 27 | 12.0 | 13.2% | 132 | 0.97% | 197 | 1.45% |
| 50-59 | 29 | 13.3 | 13.4% | 134 | 0.94% | 197 | 1.39% |
| 60-69 | 26 | 10.1 | 11.5% | 115 | 0.81% | 174 | 1.23% |
| 70+ | 12 | 10.7 | 11.9% | 119 | 0.92% | 174 | 1.34% |
| All ages | 191 | 91.3 | 100% | 999 | 0.84% | 1481 | 1.25% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 27 2020 | 26412 | 273981 | 757 | 80 | 3482 | 5357 |
| November 28 2020 | 26843 | 274307 | 775 | 80 | 3369 | 5495 |
| November 29 2020 | 27236 | 275143 | 782 | 80 | 3367 | 5516 |
| November 30 2020 | 27489 | 275850 | 785 | 80 | 3172 | 5266 |
| December 01 2020 | 27600 | 276005 | 794 | 81 | 2946 | 4670 |
| December 02 2020 | 27830 | 276346 | 811 | 102 | 2964 | 4356 |
| December 03 2020 | 28226 | 277243 | 823 | 102 | 3220 | 4357 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 14 | 12.9 | 5.3% | 170 | 0.28% | 241 | 0.4% |
| 10-19 | 65 | 35.1 | 14.2% | 457 | 0.64% | 647 | 0.91% |
| 20-29 | 98 | 56.3 | 21.2% | 682 | 0.66% | 966 | 0.93% |
| 30-39 | 66 | 45.1 | 16.9% | 545 | 0.71% | 755 | 0.99% |
| 40-49 | 64 | 39.9 | 15.1% | 485 | 0.74% | 634 | 0.97% |
| 50-59 | 35 | 31.6 | 11.5% | 370 | 0.56% | 483 | 0.74% |
| 60-69 | 34 | 20.1 | 8.1% | 261 | 0.48% | 338 | 0.62% |
| 70+ | 20 | 24.6 | 7.8% | 250 | 0.51% | 293 | 0.6% |
| All ages | 396 | 265.6 | 100% | 3220 | 0.59% | 4357 | 0.8% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 27 2020 | 375837 | 2133700 | 16715 | 3257 | 51989 | 74672 |
| November 28 2020 | 380870 | 2138110 | 16882 | 3285 | 49033 | 74559 |
| November 29 2020 | 384701 | 2143790 | 16999 | 3307 | 46229 | 72332 |
| November 30 2020 | 387235 | 2149996 | 17095 | 3313 | 42290 | 70477 |
| December 01 2020 | 391313 | 2156410 | 17372 | 3420 | 40144 | 67465 |
| December 02 2020 | 395090 | 2162616 | 17569 | 3502 | 40414 | 63253 |
| December 03 2020 | 399708 | 2169970 | 17741 | 3562 | 41937 | 61236 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 205 | 153.7 | 4.3% | 1810 | 0.28% | 2663 | 0.42% |
| 10-19 | 550 | 399.3 | 10.9% | 4571 | 0.6% | 6768 | 0.89% |
| 20-29 | 833 | 607.1 | 17.1% | 7166 | 0.95% | 10452 | 1.38% |
| 30-39 | 806 | 570.7 | 15.7% | 6573 | 0.87% | 9625 | 1.27% |
| 40-49 | 652 | 521.4 | 14.6% | 6105 | 0.87% | 8848 | 1.27% |
| 50-59 | 647 | 535.4 | 14.9% | 6264 | 0.77% | 9267 | 1.14% |
| 60-69 | 530 | 413.9 | 11.5% | 4814 | 0.64% | 7006 | 0.93% |
| 70+ | 395 | 394.3 | 11% | 4634 | 0.72% | 6607 | 1.03% |
| All ages | 4618 | 3595.9 | 100% | 41937 | 0.72% | 61236 | 1.05% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 112.6 | 101.4 | 148.1 | 56.1 | 188.1 | 27.8% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 169.5 | 65.7 | 106.3 | 51.1% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154.3 | 36.6 | 87 | 36.1% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 125.3 | 90.6 | 140.5 | 91.3 | 150.7 | 37.4% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79.7 | 91 | 93 | 265.6 | 449.4 | 30.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105.2 | 89.4 | 138.1 | 3595.9 | 6043.9 | 36% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 4.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.51 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-24 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3315"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges