Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Active

Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

Column

Estimated Active, split by Age group:

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 27 2020 7563 37665 241 57 1312 2021
November 28 2020 7661 37844 243 57 1059 2035
November 29 2020 7756 37967 243 57 978 1891
November 30 2020 7790 38123 243 57 860 1641
December 01 2020 7854 38250 245 58 779 1603
December 02 2020 7909 38383 248 59 727 1307
December 03 2020 7956 38522 248 59 706 1178
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 2 2.3 4.4% 31 0.27% 53 0.46%
10-19 6 4.7 10.5% 74 0.54% 138 1.01%
20-29 18 17.1 26.9% 190 0.91% 310 1.48%
30-39 7 9.7 16.9% 119 0.87% 194 1.43%
40-49 4 6.6 11.8% 83 0.79% 143 1.37%
50-59 5 6.9 12.9% 91 0.72% 147 1.17%
60-69 3 5.0 9.6% 68 0.59% 106 0.92%
70+ 2 3.9 7.1% 50 0.48% 87 0.83%
All ages 47 56.1 100% 706 0.67% 1178 1.13%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 27 2020 4531 22828 126 50 838 1173
November 28 2020 4535 22892 127 50 738 1097
November 29 2020 4598 22959 130 51 704 1087
November 30 2020 4666 23035 132 51 697 1086
December 01 2020 4794 23095 134 52 619 1101
December 02 2020 4921 23146 138 53 666 1124
December 03 2020 4990 23207 139 53 686 1096
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 2.6 4.2% 29 0.37% 39 0.5%
10-19 6 7.7 11.1% 76 0.9% 101 1.2%
20-29 14 9.7 14.6% 100 1.41% 162 2.28%
30-39 18 11.4 17.1% 117 1.39% 203 2.42%
40-49 12 11.9 18.7% 128 1.65% 203 2.62%
50-59 9 7.7 12.5% 86 0.89% 157 1.62%
60-69 6 5.3 8% 55 0.65% 96 1.14%
70+ 3 9.4 13.8% 95 1.34% 135 1.9%
All ages 69 65.7 100% 686 1.06% 1096 1.7%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 27 2020 3465 15195 128 41 711 1281
November 28 2020 3558 15226 136 41 676 1161
November 29 2020 3580 15261 139 41 557 939
November 30 2020 3619 15354 142 41 481 898
December 01 2020 3650 15395 148 41 438 896
December 02 2020 3688 15466 151 41 438 806
December 03 2020 3721 15508 154 41 414 698
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 1 1.9 5.3% 22 0.41% 36 0.66%
10-19 5 3.3 8.2% 34 0.63% 64 1.18%
20-29 3 4.3 11.8% 49 1.08% 86 1.9%
30-39 4 4.6 13.3% 55 1.01% 101 1.86%
40-49 3 4.1 11.1% 46 0.92% 82 1.65%
50-59 7 4.4 16.2% 67 0.99% 104 1.53%
60-69 4 6.4 15.7% 65 1.03% 102 1.61%
70+ 6 7.6 18.4% 76 1.2% 123 1.94%
All ages 33 36.6 100% 414 0.92% 698 1.54%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 27 2020 7813 40286 157 35 1172 1629
November 28 2020 7906 40422 158 35 1061 1680
November 29 2020 8011 40550 158 35 1092 1726
November 30 2020 8087 40669 162 35 1006 1638
December 01 2020 8126 40839 170 36 839 1485
December 02 2020 8209 40943 173 37 869 1364
December 03 2020 8400 41172 180 38 999 1481
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 6 2.6 3.5% 35 0.3% 50 0.42%
10-19 22 10.7 11.3% 113 0.68% 150 0.91%
20-29 33 16.9 19.2% 192 0.9% 299 1.4%
30-39 36 15.0 15.9% 159 1.17% 240 1.77%
40-49 27 12.0 13.2% 132 0.97% 197 1.45%
50-59 29 13.3 13.4% 134 0.94% 197 1.39%
60-69 26 10.1 11.5% 115 0.81% 174 1.23%
70+ 12 10.7 11.9% 119 0.92% 174 1.34%
All ages 191 91.3 100% 999 0.84% 1481 1.25%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 27 2020 26412 273981 757 80 3482 5357
November 28 2020 26843 274307 775 80 3369 5495
November 29 2020 27236 275143 782 80 3367 5516
November 30 2020 27489 275850 785 80 3172 5266
December 01 2020 27600 276005 794 81 2946 4670
December 02 2020 27830 276346 811 102 2964 4356
December 03 2020 28226 277243 823 102 3220 4357
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 14 12.9 5.3% 170 0.28% 241 0.4%
10-19 65 35.1 14.2% 457 0.64% 647 0.91%
20-29 98 56.3 21.2% 682 0.66% 966 0.93%
30-39 66 45.1 16.9% 545 0.71% 755 0.99%
40-49 64 39.9 15.1% 485 0.74% 634 0.97%
50-59 35 31.6 11.5% 370 0.56% 483 0.74%
60-69 34 20.1 8.1% 261 0.48% 338 0.62%
70+ 20 24.6 7.8% 250 0.51% 293 0.6%
All ages 396 265.6 100% 3220 0.59% 4357 0.8%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
November 27 2020 375837 2133700 16715 3257 51989 74672
November 28 2020 380870 2138110 16882 3285 49033 74559
November 29 2020 384701 2143790 16999 3307 46229 72332
November 30 2020 387235 2149996 17095 3313 42290 70477
December 01 2020 391313 2156410 17372 3420 40144 67465
December 02 2020 395090 2162616 17569 3502 40414 63253
December 03 2020 399708 2169970 17741 3562 41937 61236
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 205 153.7 4.3% 1810 0.28% 2663 0.42%
10-19 550 399.3 10.9% 4571 0.6% 6768 0.89%
20-29 833 607.1 17.1% 7166 0.95% 10452 1.38%
30-39 806 570.7 15.7% 6573 0.87% 9625 1.27%
40-49 652 521.4 14.6% 6105 0.87% 8848 1.27%
50-59 647 535.4 14.9% 6264 0.77% 9267 1.14%
60-69 530 413.9 11.5% 4814 0.64% 7006 0.93%
70+ 395 394.3 11% 4634 0.72% 6607 1.03%
All ages 4618 3595.9 100% 41937 0.72% 61236 1.05%

Column

Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
112.6 101.4 148.1 56.1 188.1 27.8%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
169.5 65.7 106.3 51.1%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
154.3 36.6 87 36.1%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
125.3 90.6 140.5 91.3 150.7 37.4%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
79.7 91 93 265.6 449.4 30.2%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
105.2 89.4 138.1 3595.9 6043.9 36%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

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Dane

Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 4.4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.51 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-24 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3315"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red